China is currently exploring paths towards an ecological civilization and is at the same time in a process of rapid urbanization. Two interesting initiatives could bring the idea of an ecological civilization and urbanization together on a global scale: the Jing-Jin-Ji and the Pearl River Delta initiative.

The first project, Jing-Jin-Ji, which stands for "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei", will connect 13 cities and cover approximately 130 million people. The second project is the planned merger of nine cities of between 2 and 15 million people in Guangdong province into one megacity cluster with more than 60 million people.

Both these megacities are home to some of the world’s most innovative companies and mayors. These initiatives could therefore play a key role in providing sustainable global solutions at a crucial time. To understand just how important these megacities are at the beginning of the 21st century we need to take a step back.

Extreme poverty and urbanization
During the latter half of the 20th century, the world witnessed rapid changes in two areas. Extreme poverty began to fall at an accelerating rate at the same time as urbanization picked up speed. Right after the millennial shift, humanity entered a new era when more people suffer from “over nutrition” than malnutrition and the urban population is, for the first time in human history, larger than the rural.

The fall in extreme poverty is one of humanity's great achievements and it is easy to forget just how dramatic the change has been. Only back as far as 1950, it was estimated that about three-quarters of the world population was living in extreme poverty. Today the latest data indicate that less than 10 percent are living in extreme poverty.

The drop in extreme poverty from 75 percent to 10 percent in a little over 50 years is impressive, and China has played a major role. The drop is all the more impressive as it took place during a time of rapid population growth. Back in 1950, global population was 2.5 billion and today it is just above 7.5 billion. So not only did the absolute number of people in extreme poverty fall, the number of people not living in extreme poverty exploded from a little over half a billion to close to 7 billion.

While it looks difficult to totally eradicate extreme poverty by 2030, which is the current agreed global goal, it looks like a world without extreme poverty is within reach.

The second trend, urbanization, is slightly less dramatic in terms of numbers, but equally transformative in terms of impact. Back in 1950, about one-third of the global population lived in cities. Today more than half of the world’s population is living in cities.

Looking forward, it is assumed that twice as many people will live in cities by 2050 compared with the rural population. So whatever global challenges and opportunities we face, cities will be instrumental for the solutions needed.

Looking at the megatrends for poverty and urbanization, it might look like things are moving in the right direction, but if we broaden the perspective, things do, however, become more complicated.

Ecological destruction
During the last 50 years we have accelerated ecological destruction and we are now in a situation where humanity is undermining the very ecological web that all life on earth depends on, including our own civilization.

The magnitude of the ecological destruction is difficult to understand. Climate change and biodiversity loss alone are potential threats to our civilization’s very existence, but what we are facing is a convergence of pollution, biodiversity loss, climate change and a number of associated challenges due to a fundamental lack of capacity in our modern economy to integrate long-term consequences. The fact that our modern economy is destroying nature and thereby threatening our long-term survival was the reason the Union of Concerned Scientists and more than 1,700 independent scientists, including the majority of living Nobel laureates in the sciences, wrote the 1992 World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity.

For 15 years we saw a lot of talk about sustainability and a growing number of initiatives that claimed to be sustainable, but very few of the mega trends saw any significant improvement. In 2017, a new document, World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice, included a graph that clearly showed that we have hardly made any progress, and in some cases we have even accelerated the destruction and now the biological systems around us are beginning to collapse.

Future secure services
As the challenges are now moving from future threats to ongoing catastrophes, we must ask why the approaches to sustainability so far have failed. To simplify slightly, the Western approach to sustainability has been to incrementally improve existing systems and move the problems to where they can not be seen by those living in Western countries. Many Western cities today are clean and reasonably healthy places to live, but the way they have achieved this is mainly by either moving the problem, e.g. moving carbon-intensive production, or using a lot of natural resources to deliver solutions that can only be used by a few, for example, biofuel solutions or district heating based on extreme waste production. These are solutions that only work for a few rich countries, as long as most of the population is poor.

It is important to note that while extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 per day, has been reduced significantly, most people are still far from living comfortable lives. While 10 percent today live on less than $1.90 a day, that percentage increases to 30 percent if we include everyone who lives on less than $3.20 a day, and almost half of the world’s population lives on less than $5.50 a day. While you do not die from starvation if you earn $5.50 a day, it is not a very good life, as access to good healthcare, high-quality education and many other things in society are still beyond reach. We should therefore assume, and do what we can to ensure, that everyone in the future will not just move out of extreme poverty, but eventually live a good life.

If we want a world where everyone has the opportunity to live a good life without destroying the planet, we must ensure that the solutions we provide can be used in an ecologically sustainable and equitable world with approximately 11 billion people, the likely number of people that will live on the planet by the end of this century.

In order to understand where globally sustainable solutions could emerge, we must ask where people understand the need to bring people out of poverty in a sustainable way. China and India are probably the two most obvious countries where the need to move people out of poverty are key priorities for everyone who is a serious policymaker.

In the next step, we need to ask where significant investments will take place and where leading innovative entrepreneurs of all types, from large companies and policymakers to social entrepreneurs and teachers, exist. It is difficult to find a better place to look for the solutions we need than the emerging megacities in China.

If the investments and strategies that will shape these megacities are guided by a global perspective that is based on equity, they will become the much-needed providers of solutions for the 21st century. These megacities will also emerge when, for the first time, we have the technology required, the business models needed and the necessary economic resources to provide key services in ways that are compatible with an equitable and ecologically sustainable world with 11 billion people.

Three different groups of solutions
While the cities hopefully will be sustainable as a whole, we need to start somewhere and there are three groups of solutions that could pave the way for these megacities as global innovation and sustainability leaders.

The first group of solutions would be to establish, support and export globally sustainable solutions for an equitable world with 11 billion people in strategic areas. Six examples of such strategic areas are:

• Restaurants with 11 billion meals
These restaurants would provide nutritional, healthy and good tasting meals that 11 billion people could enjoy without destroying the planet. Such primarily plant-based diets have a long tradition in China’s diverse cuisine that include mushrooms, tofu and other globally sustainable sources of nutrients.

• Universities with 11 billion students
These universities would have sustainable buildings, but even more importantly the education itself would be framed around the need to provide sustainable solutions for a world with 11 billion people. Multi-disciplinary initiatives should be encouraged as global solutions tend to require a mix of knowledge to be successful. Many sustainable city projects fail because they lack the right balance between areas such as technology, economy, law, behavioral science and philosophy.

• Virtual meeting hubs for 11 billion meetings
A new generation of megacities will become international hubs and it is important to ensure that meetings can be conducted virtually. In addition to the obvious virtual meeting spaces, these megacities could also take the lead in the next generation on virtual presence where they participate in international meetings through robots that allow you to move around and interact while not being physically present. They could also take the lead in the next generation of virtual and mixed reality experiences.

• Public transport for 11 billion
Ensuring that people can physically move around is important and it is not just about providing technical solutions though sustainable vehicles, but also ensuring city planning with green spaces and a walkable city that is supporting healthy lifestyles.

• Tea houses with 11 billion cultures
Equally important as the basic services in society is the possibility to evolve as a human being through art and philosophy. Tea houses could both provide a valuable space for reflection on what a good life is and be a contrast to the unhealthy and stressful places that promote consumerism and fast food that tend to dominate public spaces in cities around the world.

• Hotels with 11 billion beings
A good way to bring many of the global solutions together and demonstrate how attractive they are would be to build 11 billion living hotels. These hotels would provide sustainable spaces for people where the material used to build the hotels are sustainable, the hotels are net-producers of sustainable energy and water, the transport to and from the hotel is sustainable, the food served is sustainable and the possibility for virtual meetings exists.

The second group of solutions are sustainable transitions initiatives. These are initiatives that address the key challenges as we move from an unsustainable industrial society towards an ecological civilization. Two examples of such transition initiatives are:

• AI and robots for global sustainability
How to make sure that the increased use of AI and robots are developed in a way that they support and accelerate sustainable trends, rather than undermining sustainability and accelerating current unsustainable trends. This is particularly important as some of the major investments in these areas happen in companies that are part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

• Basic and maximum flourishing income
The increased productivity in society has provided unprecedented resources, but so far these gains have mainly benefited the global elite. Even China’s rapid development that has helped moved hundreds of millions out of extreme poverty has resulted in increased inequity. A new generation of cities could experiment with ways to ensure that everyone has a minimum flourishing income that allows them to live a good life, while also exploring incentives for a maximum level of income and wealth. This will be increasingly important in the 21st century as the increased productivity could result in a group of super-rich people who, with the help of new technology, can shape society as well as themselves in ways that are highly problematic.

The third group of solutions are eco-civilization initiatives. New megacities could provide inspiration for a post-consumer, post-economistic, post-industrial society by engaging in conversations about key challenges and opportunities for the 21st century.

So far, much of the sustainability focus has been on reducing the negative aspects from providing basic needs without destroying the planet and reducing absolute poverty. These are important challenges, but there are also a number of important questions about what kind of society we want that also need to be discussed.

How can people flourish and how can we create a society where art and science thrive? What rules should the government abide by and what role should the government have in order to ensure the necessary freedom and security for citizens? How can we ensure that people can own and control their own data, and how can we create a transparency that protects citizens against companies and governments that have much more power than the individual citizen?

Where can individuals and groups meet to discuss their ideas for the future in ways that encourage bridge building instead of polarization. Where can platforms be created that encourage reflection and scientific understanding more than the number of likes on a 140-character emotional outburst?

How can we ensure that innovation is not driven by companies who see citizens only as consumers and ensure that structures are created that keep corruption and misuse of state power in check?

China’s first megacity has the potential to be the one of the most important places on the planet over the next decades by developing, deploying and exporting the first generation of sustainable solutions. The major trends of the last century have provided us with unique opportunities to allow the next generation of solutions to be developed by, deployed in and exported from China's megacities.

Dennis Pamlin is a senior adviser at the Research Institutes of Sweden. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.

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