It has been almost 40 years since China and the United States established diplomatic relations. Confucius once said: “At 40, I had no doubts.” However, this is still the goal rather than the reality for China-US ties. Donald Trump has been in the White House for more than a year, but the countries’ relationship still needs further exploration so that both sides can head in the right direction and eliminate suspicion.
The US policy toward China brings instability and uncertainty, different to the George W. Bush administration’s hard-to-soft approach and the Obama administration’s soft-to-hard approach. This is because the US has three social aspects to consider in terms of its China policy:
From the public perspective, there is an air of disappointment and imbalance in US society. With developments in globalization, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, the US economy has suffered heavy losses. Although the US economy has shown signs of recovery, the sense of security and well-being among Americans has yet to return. As the backbone of the US’ olive-shaped society, the middle class has been in a difficult position for the past 20 years, and its wage level has barely risen. The phenomenon of underemployment among blue-collar workers and young people is widespread. A graduate student from the University of California, Berkeley, told me that because many young people cannot find suitable jobs, they are moving back with their parents to save money, which is counter to the individualism advocated in American society. Moreover, the unemployment and sub-employment conditions not only bring economic difficulties to the people, but also have a major psychological impact, which is hard to eliminate in the short term. In addition, US social issues such as the intensification of racial problems, frequent mass shooting incidents, and the polarization between rich and poor have become prominent, but due to the further polarization of American society and political parties, the solutions have been delayed. These problems accumulate to produce disappointment among Americans. However, at the same time, emerging countries represented by China have achieved rapid development over the past 20 years, which has intensified the psychological imbalance. A member of the US congress told me that the US is used to being the champion in sporting events, and it is not comfortable with another athlete running faster to catch up.
From the perspective of the US elites, China’s development has shattered some of their illusions. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a major debate in the US on its policy toward China. There are mainly three schools of thought: containment; containment and engagement; and engagement. No conclusion has been made as to whether China is a friend, an opponent or neither. The most important argument of the engagement school is that only by engaging with China can the US push China’s transition from economic reform to political reform, and finally transform China into a so-called free and democratic country. Therefore, the US must engage with China. However, China’s development has forced many American elites, especially after the financial crisis, to admit that socialism is a long-term phenomenon in China and could exist permanently. When I participated in a dialogue with a think tank in the US, more than one former US government official expressed such a view. The most obvious example was in the National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in December. The US not only sees China as a strategic competitor, but also overthrows the strategic foundation for engagement and cooperation between the US and China, that support for China’s rise and for its integration into the post-war international order would liberalize China is completely wrong.
The problems that have arisen in overall China-US relations can be attributed to the deep sense of ambivalence and inadaptability of the US. The US hopes to completely change China politically, but it has to accept a socialist China with a good momentum of development. It wants to provoke full-scale competition with China, but it is hampered by the highly integrated development of bilateral relations and finds nowhere to start.
In this situation, we should adhere to three attitudes on China-US relations:
First, we should take the ups and downs in relations in our stride. When relations develop particularly well, we should not be overly optimistic and believe that ties will be smooth all the time. When relations are relatively sensitive, like now, we should not be too pessimistic because relations often turn out to be miracles. In terms of China-US economic and trade relations, it has never been smooth sailing. Conflicts between China and the US have focused on textile trade in the 1980s, and on intellectual property rights and favored nation treatment in the 1990s. Since 2000, there has been more diversified economic and trade frictions on renminbi exchange rates, market access, IPR protection and other issues. However, in the process of resolving the contradictions, relations have gained greater impetus for development. Once, when I met with former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, he said that the current leaders of China and the US are already very great. “When the older generation of politicians in the US and China talked about restoring relations, they only needed to think over which strategy to take. Now China-US relations are all-encompassing and complex and they can be managed so well. I personally admire the current leaders.” Therefore, when Sino-American relations encounter difficulties, we must maintain our strategic strength and take it in our stride.
Second, we should have confidence. The development of relations has surpassed the “Western impact and Chinese response model” as elaborated by John K. Fairbank. We are now fully capable and confident in actively shaping and guiding relations. To ensure the healthy and stable development of China-US relations, State Councilor Yang Jiechi and Liu He, head of the General Office of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs, both visited the US early this year. These visits represent the sincerity of the Chinese side. We hope to convey positive information to the US through face-to-face exchanges and clarify misunderstandings, so as to effectively manage our differences and avoid miscalculations. We must also have confidence in China’s development. If the US does something that is detrimental to China’s interests in spite of China’s sincerity, we will never retreat. Instead, we will draw a red line and take appropriate countermeasures to make sure those who doubt the win-win relationship make the right choices as soon as possible. In the same way, the US should have full confidence in its own development. Although the speed of development of the US in recent years has been slower than that of China, it is still the world leader. Moreover, the US should also have full confidence in the complementarity of China-US economic and trade relations. As the two sides make the cake of cooperation bigger, the complementary points in economic and trade relations will continue to emerge. In fact, entrepreneurs from the two countries have already found new cooperation points. When I visited the US last year and received a US delegation this year, many heads of major US corporations, including General Electric, expressed great interest in cooperating with the Belt and Road Initiative.
Third, we should be tolerant. For some time, when it comes to China-US relations, what the academic community most often mentions is the lack of mutual trust between the two parties. Before the establishment of mutual trust, the first thing that should be solved is mutual understanding and tolerance. There is such a big difference between East and West, and China and the US are no exceptions. A Western photographer once said that if the ancient civilization of the East becomes the same as the West, then Eastern civilization will die. Therefore, we should not expect any party to transform the other in its own image. China has always accepted the harmonious coexistence of different systems and cultures. The US should also learn to accept a diverse world and a China that is different from the West.
In the course of nearly four decades of development, although China-US relations have weathered storms, maintained a healthy, sustained and stable course of development, and made indelible contributions to the promotion of peace, stability and prosperity in the world. Kissinger — who broke the ice of China-US relations with Richard Nixon and the older generation of Chinese leaders — has said that when he visited China in the 1970s, when leaders of the US and China decided to develop bilateral relations, even the most imaginative people could not have imagined the breadth and depth of the development in China-US relations today. Therefore, no matter how bumpy the course, if we look at the historical development of relations between the two countries and adhere to the three attitudes, we will have full confidence in the future of relations.
The author is deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchange’s department of external affairs.
It has been almost 40 years since China and the United States established diplomatic relations. Confucius once said: “At 40, I had no doubts.” However, this is still the goal rather than the reality for China-US ties. Donald Trump has been in the White House for more than a year, but the countries’ relationship still needs further exploration so that both sides can head in the right direction and eliminate suspicion.
The US policy toward China brings instability and uncertainty, different to the George W. Bush administration’s hard-to-soft approach and the Obama administration’s soft-to-hard approach. This is because the US has three social aspects to consider in terms of its China policy:
From the public perspective, there is an air of disappointment and imbalance in US society. With developments in globalization, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, the US economy has suffered heavy losses. Although the US economy has shown signs of recovery, the sense of security and well-being among Americans has yet to return. As the backbone of the US’ olive-shaped society, the middle class has been in a difficult position for the past 20 years, and its wage level has barely risen. The phenomenon of underemployment among blue-collar workers and young people is widespread. A graduate student from the University of California, Berkeley, told me that because many young people cannot find suitable jobs, they are moving back with their parents to save money, which is counter to the individualism advocated in American society. Moreover, the unemployment and sub-employment conditions not only bring economic difficulties to the people, but also have a major psychological impact, which is hard to eliminate in the short term. In addition, US social issues such as the intensification of racial problems, frequent mass shooting incidents, and the polarization between rich and poor have become prominent, but due to the further polarization of American society and political parties, the solutions have been delayed. These problems accumulate to produce disappointment among Americans. However, at the same time, emerging countries represented by China have achieved rapid development over the past 20 years, which has intensified the psychological imbalance. A member of the US congress told me that the US is used to being the champion in sporting events, and it is not comfortable with another athlete running faster to catch up.
From the perspective of the US elites, China’s development has shattered some of their illusions. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a major debate in the US on its policy toward China. There are mainly three schools of thought: containment; containment and engagement; and engagement. No conclusion has been made as to whether China is a friend, an opponent or neither. The most important argument of the engagement school is that only by engaging with China can the US push China’s transition from economic reform to political reform, and finally transform China into a so-called free and democratic country. Therefore, the US must engage with China. However, China’s development has forced many American elites, especially after the financial crisis, to admit that socialism is a long-term phenomenon in China and could exist permanently. When I participated in a dialogue with a think tank in the US, more than one former US government official expressed such a view. The most obvious example was in the National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in December. The US not only sees China as a strategic competitor, but also overthrows the strategic foundation for engagement and cooperation between the US and China, that support for China’s rise and for its integration into the post-war international order would liberalize China is completely wrong.