By Robert Lawrence Kuhn |
China Watch |
Updated: 2018-05-23 09:00
Robert Kuhn Public intellectual and international corporate strategist
China has entered a new era. That's the claim. China faces new challenges. That's for sure.
Domestically and internationally, there is great change afoot. China is venturing into untrodden territory at home and embarking into unchartered waters abroad, and the country must now navigate through both simultaneously. It is the right moment for China Daily to establish its China Watch Institute.
The CWI has declared its mission: to be a fair and focused facilitator, not a dour and dogmatic arbiter, for expert exchanges on China's new era - a new kind of platform for international and China-based think tanks to interact in an open atmosphere of substantive engagement. I applaud the ambition and offer modest suggestions.
First, the content: China's new era is characterized by dislocations and disruptions, ambiguities and uncertainties. China is facing unprecedented, complex challenges. Domestically, these include slower growth, financial risk, industrial overcapacity, pollution, income disparity, social imbalances, social justice, social service demands, interest groups blocking reform, and people's rising expectations. Internationally, the challenges include regional conflicts, trade protectionism, sluggish economies, volatile markets, ethnic clashes, terrorism, geopolitical rivalries, territorial disputes and increasing pushbacks.
This is the rugged terrain of think tanks, which have flourished in the United States, and also in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, Japan and India, among others. President Xi Jinping has called on China to strengthen its own think tanks, making "think tanks with Chinese characteristics" a strategic priority. Implementing his political philosophy - Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era - depends on sophisticated analysis.
Xi has stated that intellectual resources play a crucial role in governing the country. The more arduous the desired reform, he said, the more broad-based the required support. It is simply impossible for government to dictate all of the optimum policies without in-depth research. Moreover, China looks to strengthen its "soft power" in the world, competing in the global marketplace of ideas. For Chinese think tanks to fulfill their mission, creativity and innovation must be stimulated, constructive criticism encouraged, and failure respected (not just tolerated).
The challenge to the CWI in becoming an effective global platform is that think tanks from all countries, and of diverse political persuasions and intellectual traditions, feel welcome - encouraged to present freely their observations, findings and concerns about China, and to offer honestly their ideas, suggestions and prescriptions for China.
"Challenge" being the operative word, here are domestic challenges in China's new era that the CWI might address:
Can the Chinese people have a better life sufficiently rapidly to keep pace with their rising expectations - with respect to employment, income, healthcare, education, retirement, social services and the like?
Can financial risk, including corporate and local government debt, internet finance, shadow banking and wealth-management products, be controlled to substantially reduce financial system risk without substantially reducing economic growth or financial innovation?
Can pollution be reduced materially without materially impeding economic growth?
Can China make sufficient changes to its trade and industrial policies to avoid a trade war with the United States and not compromise its core interests in industrial transformation?
Will China open up additional markets to private or foreign businesses? What are potential dangers from too little or too much opening up?
Can oversight and management of State-owned enterprises be improved with real board-of-director authority and executive professionalism, without the State giving up its absolute control?
Can rural reforms, especially rural land reform, reduce severe imbalances between urban and rural sectors? What could be unintended consequences of rural land reform?
Is poverty alleviation sustainable? What happens after 2020, assuming poverty alleviation goals are met? Even though extreme poverty may be eliminated, tens of millions of people will still be living in relative poverty.
Although the Party leads society, it faces challenges: furthering economic reform and transformation and guiding social development and transition while, at the same time, improving transparency, establishing checks and balances, and building institutions that are self-regulating - all in an open environment of instant information everywhere.
How will the Party's increasing role in society, including in businesses and universities, as well as in government, affect productivity, effectiveness, efficiency and creativity?
Can China become a world leader in innovation, science, technology, and knowledge-based business broadly, given the government's strict regulation of the media and social discourse?
As the anti-corruption campaign expands to include government as well as the Party, might fear inhibit action, dampening creative spirit and bold initiatives?
How does China defuse its "demographic time bomb" of a rapidly aging population and a slowly decreasing workforce?
Similarly, following are international challenges in China's new era that the CWI might address:
How can China balance issues of sovereignty and territory with good neighborly relations and alleviation of "China threat" theories (and anxieties)?
How can China deal with gross imbalances of trade, especially with the US? How should China respond to US protectionism measures?
If the US continues its "America First" strategy, will China be forced to replace the US as the champion of globalization?
China's Belt and Road Initiative expands links between Asia, Africa and Europe, reducing imbalances in national development and promoting economic growth. It focuses on projects, such as high-speed rail, that facilitate local development without criticizing local government or moralizing over alleged abuses. But how to handle Belt and Road difficulties, such as debt defaults and local concerns about Chinese dominance?
Can China think long term, avoid the temptation of seeking short-term results, and recognize that Belt and Road is the "project of the century"?
Why do some countries remain reluctant to join the Belt and Road - the US, Japan, India, the UK? What can be done to make the initiative win-win for all?
What to do when there is backlash against Chinese interests or influence abroad (actual or perceived)? Why do some international think tanks see "surging Sinophobia" and target "CPC influence operations"? Why are some universities questioning Confucius Institutes?
How should China react to neo-containment moves, such as the so-called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, among the US, Japan, India and Australia? What about South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines?
How should China respond to foreign suspicions of its long-term motives? (If I said that the world is entirely confident or comfortable with the trajectory of China's rise, I'd be telling a falsehood.) Looking ahead to mid-century, 2050, what happens when, as Xi said, China moves to center stage of the world? Although China's leaders reiterate that no matter how strong China becomes, the country will never seek hegemony or engage in expansion, it's no secret that foreigners still worry, especially when they see China constructing multiple aircraft carriers and planning foreign military bases.
As China increases its proactive engagement with the world, is China prepared to assume the responsibilities and bear the burdens of troubled regions and rogue states? What happens if Chinese assets are attacked or Chinese citizens killed?
How can China encourage the US and other Western nations to accept that Xi's vision of a global "community of a shared future" is good for all humankind, even as China would play an enhanced role in "a new kind of global governance"?
How can China assure the international community that it does not seek to undermine the international order? For example, how to harmonize four expressions in President Xi's 2018 New Year's address: "China has something to say ..." about critical world issues, and indeed the world "expects to hear China's stance" - while at the same time, China is "a responsible major country" and a "keeper of international order"?
The big global question remains open: At midcentury, what is China's intended role in the world?
These are arduous and hopefully auspicious times, and the China Watch Institute has an opportunity, perhaps a unique opportunity, to become a catalyzing force for engagement and understanding. The CWI should welcome candid, forthright dialogue, and blunt yet respectful interaction among the best and brightest from China and the world. Without doubt, tough questions will fly and some may find themselves uncomfortable. Providing intellectual comfort for all is the CWI's challenge and, I'm convinced, its commitment.
I am pleased to participate in the CWI. I hope others will, as well. Challenges abound. Let's work them together.
Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, international corporate strategist and investment banker, and China expert/commentator. He is co-creator (with Adam Zhu) and host of CGTN's Closer to China with R.L. Kuhn and The Watcher commentaries. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
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"Challenge" being the operative word, here are domestic challenges in China's new era that the CWI might address:
Can the Chinese people have a better life sufficiently rapidly to keep pace with their rising expectations - with respect to employment, income, healthcare, education, retirement, social services and the like?
Can financial risk, including corporate and local government debt, internet finance, shadow banking and wealth-management products, be controlled to substantially reduce financial system risk without substantially reducing economic growth or financial innovation?
Can pollution be reduced materially without materially impeding economic growth?
Can China make sufficient changes to its trade and industrial policies to avoid a trade war with the United States and not compromise its core interests in industrial transformation?
Will China open up additional markets to private or foreign businesses? What are potential dangers from too little or too much opening up?
Can oversight and management of State-owned enterprises be improved with real board-of-director authority and executive professionalism, without the State giving up its absolute control?
Can rural reforms, especially rural land reform, reduce severe imbalances between urban and rural sectors? What could be unintended consequences of rural land reform?
Is poverty alleviation sustainable? What happens after 2020, assuming poverty alleviation goals are met? Even though extreme poverty may be eliminated, tens of millions of people will still be living in relative poverty.
Although the Party leads society, it faces challenges: furthering economic reform and transformation and guiding social development and transition while, at the same time, improving transparency, establishing checks and balances, and building institutions that are self-regulating - all in an open environment of instant information everywhere.
How will the Party's increasing role in society, including in businesses and universities, as well as in government, affect productivity, effectiveness, efficiency and creativity?
Can China become a world leader in innovation, science, technology, and knowledge-based business broadly, given the government's strict regulation of the media and social discourse?
As the anti-corruption campaign expands to include government as well as the Party, might fear inhibit action, dampening creative spirit and bold initiatives?
How does China defuse its "demographic time bomb" of a rapidly aging population and a slowly decreasing workforce?