US President Donald Trump changed his mind several times about whether or not to meet the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea leader Kim Jong-un on June 12 in Singapore. He announced on May 24 that the meeting would be canceled, but two days later he said he still hoped the meeting would be held on time.

Zuo Xiying from the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China told the domestic media that the two sides never shut the door on dialogue, though huge differences exist between them.

“There are two possible results of their negotiations. One is that the DPRK will completely abandon its nuclear powers, provided the United States gives it enough benefits and agrees to meet most of its demands. The other is that the two sides will both make compromises, which means the DPRK may be allowed to maintain its short and medium-range missiles but will abandon transcontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the US, so that the both countries’ security concerns can be resolved — this, however, is a challenging decision for the two leaders.”

Besides the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, Trump flip-flopped recently on the China-US trade problem, too. After delegations of the two sides reached an agreement on May 19, Trump announced an additional $50 billion tariff list against China on May 29.

The China Center for International Economic Exchanges chief economist Chen Wenling said the main reason for the China-US trade conflict is that the US is not ready yet so see a rising China, fearing it will become a strong world power in the future. “The illusion of ‘China No 1’ may have been misleading US strategy,” she said.

“On the whole, China is going upward while the US is going downward. This process will take a very long time, but Trump and other hawkish people have a misunderstanding of it. They seem to believe China is already No 1 in the world.

“Trump has repeatedly said to ‘make America great again’. It seems America is no longer great. This is the root of all of US actions today,” Chen said.

CCIEE researcher Zhang Monan said the negotiation between China and the US will be a long and hard process. “The China-US trade conflict is beyond trade,” Zhang said.

“In a trade conflict, you want to increase exports to reduce deficit, but what Trump did was just the opposite — cutting down high-tech supplies to China. This showed that the real purpose of the Trump administration was not, or at least not limited to, reducing trade deficit, but aiming to contain China’s high-tech sectors.”

Ke Jing from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences agrees the future China-US trade relationship will be a long and complex process of game playing and will face many differences in interests. It won’t be a simple problem that can be solved through a few negotiations.

“It’s not easy to solve the differences in the China-US trade,” Ke said. “Despite consensus on expanding market admittance, improving intellectual property protection and market competition, the two sides have big differences on some specific issues, such as government subsidies and internet security.

“The US has failed to adjust its domestic and international policies according to the trend of globalization in recent years, which led to further economic imbalance and rising populism.”

A normal China-US trade relationship will benefit not just the two countries. Zhao Jinping from the Development Research Center of the State Council said a normal trade environment will allow many countries and regions in the global value chain to share profits in Chinese and US market demands.

“Take Japan, South Korea and China’s Taiwan for example,” he said. “Some of their locally produced products enter the US market directly, and some others — components, materials and equipment — go to China first and then to the US after processed or assembled. A better China-US trade environment will lead to larger demands from those upper-stream regions.”

Likewise, opening-up is not just a consistent policy of China, but also applies to all countries’ development.

Xu Deshun from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation at the Ministry of Commerce reviewed some of the world’s famous economic theories and pointed out: “Economics has a history of at least 300 years since 17th century William Petty. Whether the classical trade theories in the 18th century, represented by Adam Smith’s theory of absolute advantage and David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage, or the neoclassical trade theories in the 19th century, or today’s modern international trade theory, all of them believe that compared with protectionism, open and free trade helps to use and allocate resources more efficiently, and thus benefit the whole society.”

Unlike US-led NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, the China-proposed Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an example of a new-type of international relationship. As the SCO Summit is to be held in Qingdao on June 9-10, Zhang Qi from the DRC suggested the SCO members facilitate trade with open, inclusive and win-win minds.

She called for connected infrastructure, more communication of related authorities and think tank cooperation among the members.

As the core of China’s opening-up policy in the new era, the Belt and Road Initiative is echoed by an increasing number of countries and regions. But Zhang Chunyu from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences noted most countries involved in the initiative are developing countries with financial difficulties, so he has the following suggestions for them to innovate their financial systems.

First, they should design innovative financial products based on the characteristics and risks of their infrastructure projects.

Second, they should develop new financial market models by building online platforms and using big data and cloud computing technologies.

Third, they should optimize the management of their financial institutions, building a framework of mutual trust and analyzing risks, to turn long-term benefits to short-term profits and to attract global capital.

Zhang Zhao is a China Watch researcher.

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