Hard choices face Europe under the Trump presidency
By Zhang Bei |
China Watch |
Updated: 2018-07-02 13:22
The past 18 months since the election of US President Donald Trump has been testing in many ways. His doctrine of “American First” and his way of dealing with international issues have caught many by surprise, and not in a good way. US-Europe relations, or the so-called transatlantic ties, have also met with severe shocks. Therefore, for the first time in ten or so years, transatlantic rifts have made international headlines, from Trump’s illiteracy of the European Union, his siding with populist forces such as UKIP in Britain and National Front in France, and challenging the US commitment to European security.
Just when Europeans believed, however blindly, that after their intensive efforts Trump’s view on Europe might change, in actual fact from the beginning of 2018 onward the divide looks even wider than before, with the steel and aluminum tariffs and the Iran nuclear deal causing a massive divergence.
It is fair to say that despite the initial challenges Trump brought, Europe had been reluctant to see his presidency as a game-changer for Europe-US relations. They wanted to frame it as an aberration that could be corrected, an interregnum that would eventually pass. However, as time goes on, more and more Europeans begin to realize that might be wishful thinking. Trump may have caused many new challenges to Europe-US relations, but his policy and his idea does not come from nowhere. Trump is a symptom of changes more profound and enduring that are happening to Europe-US strategic alliance and US itself, which would prove extremely difficult to manage for an ill-prepared Europe in an uncertain world.
Firstly, the divide between the US and Europe is bound to widen due to some long-term trends, not least the declining strategic value of Europe to the US. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was clear to both the US and Europe that the alliance had lost the most relevant case for its existence. That was due to ensuing twists and turns in Europe’s neighborhood, such as the Balkan war, and the need of the US for partners in implementing its own foreign policies, such as the Iraq war. The strategic value of Europe to the US had been shored up a few times, but never reached its level as in the Cold War years. The Obama administration and its “leading from behind” in Libya, and “Pivot to Asia” simply stated the obvious: The US has something else to worry about, and Europe should tend for itself. In addition to strategic value, demographic changes in both the US and Europe and the fading of memory of kinship and brotherhood forged in blood and fire, as French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned in his speech to the US congress last month, will reduce the sense of ownership for the US of Europe’s peace and prosperity. In this regard, US will no longer be, in Richard Holbrooke’ words, “an European power”.
Secondly, the fact that Trump got elected on the “American First” platform shows a changing US that its European ally doesn’t fully comprehend and is ill prepared for. The zero-sum thinking behind Trump’s every decision, on trade, immigration, climate change, and the Iran Nuclear Deal, points out that the US under Trump does not believe the current global system, which it played a clear leadership role in building, supporting and policing, is still beneficial to itself. Trump’s hostility towards and deliberate sabotage of the current international order is the worst fear of Europe, and will be the most poisonous to US-Europe relations. Frankly speaking, many Europeans share the same grievances on the side-effects of the hyper-globalization and on the political correctness of established politics as those who elected Trump, hence the surging populist forces in Europe that will not go away easily. To cope with that, Europe is also undergoing rethinking and policy adjustment, but their conclusion is that the current international system rather than the one Trump envisions is still the best to protect European interests.
Under this context, transatlantic relations are extremely difficult to manage. First, Europe struggles to protect its interests against Trump’s policies, be it economic ones or related to preserving the multilateral system. From the case of Iran nuclear deal when European interests are neglected at the expense of Trump’s “American First”, Europe shows the determination to stand up to Trump but finds itself with limited tool box to really make a difference.
Second, the US is still the most important security, economic and strategic partner for Europe and any substantial deterioration of this relationship will result in undermining the current international system, established by the US and Europe and expanded to the whole world. Therefore, Europe is very clear that too much is at stake at this moment. Therefore, even when Trump’s decision to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal makes Europe angry, many argue that Europe cannot burn bridges to the US and instead should reach out more to the US and make greater efforts to consolidate the basis for US-Europe relations in preparation for the post-Trump era.
Last but not least, the current world situation is much more complicated for Europe, as the gravity of the global economy is shifting eastward and the US is increasingly going after China as it fears China’s development and enhanced global influence. Under this context, how Europe deals with transatlantic relations has consequences for Europe’s relations with other countries. Europe is faced with the dilemma that as a strategic ally of the US, on multilateralism and preserving the current international system, it is increasingly on the same page with China. Europe should be attempting to use it as a bargaining chip for both China and the US, but eventually it is a problem that only it itself can provide an answer for.
Zhang Bei is assistant research fellow at European Department, China Institute of International Studies. The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
The past 18 months since the election of US President Donald Trump has been testing in many ways. His doctrine of “American First” and his way of dealing with international issues have caught many by surprise, and not in a good way. US-Europe relations, or the so-called transatlantic ties, have also met with severe shocks. Therefore, for the first time in ten or so years, transatlantic rifts have made international headlines, from Trump’s illiteracy of the European Union, his siding with populist forces such as UKIP in Britain and National Front in France, and challenging the US commitment to European security.
Just when Europeans believed, however blindly, that after their intensive efforts Trump’s view on Europe might change, in actual fact from the beginning of 2018 onward the divide looks even wider than before, with the steel and aluminum tariffs and the Iran nuclear deal causing a massive divergence.
It is fair to say that despite the initial challenges Trump brought, Europe had been reluctant to see his presidency as a game-changer for Europe-US relations. They wanted to frame it as an aberration that could be corrected, an interregnum that would eventually pass. However, as time goes on, more and more Europeans begin to realize that might be wishful thinking. Trump may have caused many new challenges to Europe-US relations, but his policy and his idea does not come from nowhere. Trump is a symptom of changes more profound and enduring that are happening to Europe-US strategic alliance and US itself, which would prove extremely difficult to manage for an ill-prepared Europe in an uncertain world.
Firstly, the divide between the US and Europe is bound to widen due to some long-term trends, not least the declining strategic value of Europe to the US. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was clear to both the US and Europe that the alliance had lost the most relevant case for its existence. That was due to ensuing twists and turns in Europe’s neighborhood, such as the Balkan war, and the need of the US for partners in implementing its own foreign policies, such as the Iraq war. The strategic value of Europe to the US had been shored up a few times, but never reached its level as in the Cold War years. The Obama administration and its “leading from behind” in Libya, and “Pivot to Asia” simply stated the obvious: The US has something else to worry about, and Europe should tend for itself. In addition to strategic value, demographic changes in both the US and Europe and the fading of memory of kinship and brotherhood forged in blood and fire, as French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned in his speech to the US congress last month, will reduce the sense of ownership for the US of Europe’s peace and prosperity. In this regard, US will no longer be, in Richard Holbrooke’ words, “an European power”.
Secondly, the fact that Trump got elected on the “American First” platform shows a changing US that its European ally doesn’t fully comprehend and is ill prepared for. The zero-sum thinking behind Trump’s every decision, on trade, immigration, climate change, and the Iran Nuclear Deal, points out that the US under Trump does not believe the current global system, which it played a clear leadership role in building, supporting and policing, is still beneficial to itself. Trump’s hostility towards and deliberate sabotage of the current international order is the worst fear of Europe, and will be the most poisonous to US-Europe relations. Frankly speaking, many Europeans share the same grievances on the side-effects of the hyper-globalization and on the political correctness of established politics as those who elected Trump, hence the surging populist forces in Europe that will not go away easily. To cope with that, Europe is also undergoing rethinking and policy adjustment, but their conclusion is that the current international system rather than the one Trump envisions is still the best to protect European interests.
Under this context, transatlantic relations are extremely difficult to manage. First, Europe struggles to protect its interests against Trump’s policies, be it economic ones or related to preserving the multilateral system. From the case of Iran nuclear deal when European interests are neglected at the expense of Trump’s “American First”, Europe shows the determination to stand up to Trump but finds itself with limited tool box to really make a difference.
Second, the US is still the most important security, economic and strategic partner for Europe and any substantial deterioration of this relationship will result in undermining the current international system, established by the US and Europe and expanded to the whole world. Therefore, Europe is very clear that too much is at stake at this moment. Therefore, even when Trump’s decision to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal makes Europe angry, many argue that Europe cannot burn bridges to the US and instead should reach out more to the US and make greater efforts to consolidate the basis for US-Europe relations in preparation for the post-Trump era.
Last but not least, the current world situation is much more complicated for Europe, as the gravity of the global economy is shifting eastward and the US is increasingly going after China as it fears China’s development and enhanced global influence. Under this context, how Europe deals with transatlantic relations has consequences for Europe’s relations with other countries. Europe is faced with the dilemma that as a strategic ally of the US, on multilateralism and preserving the current international system, it is increasingly on the same page with China. Europe should be attempting to use it as a bargaining chip for both China and the US, but eventually it is a problem that only it itself can provide an answer for.
Zhang Bei is assistant research fellow at European Department, China Institute of International Studies. The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
