China-US relations at 40: Different dreams, shared future
By Wang Huiyao |
chinawatch.cn |
Updated: 2019-02-12 15:51
Sometimes, people tied together by circumstance imagine radically different futures. Over time, mismatched expectations can put strain on a relationship. This tension is captured in the Chinese aphorism, “to share the same bed with different dreams.”
Various observers have applied this metaphor to the China-US relationship since ties were normalized in 1979. Yet, what started as a marriage of convenience amid the China-US-USSR strategic triangle has since blossomed into a robust relationship that has weathered tough times and brought great prosperity to both countries.
By any measure, the last four decades have seen remarkable strides forward in China-US ties. When President Richard Nixon visited Beijing for the first time in 1972, China-US annual bilateral trade was less than $100 million and bilateral investment was close to zero. By 2017, bilateral trade in goods reached $710.4 billion, over 232 times larger than in 1979.
For China, deepening of ties with the United States took place alongside the Reform and Opening-up process. The evolving bilateral relationship had a significant influence on China’s development over this time, with trans-Pacific trade helping millions to climb out of poverty. By 2017, cumulative foreign direct investment from the United States had reached $82.5 billion, with 68,000 companies set up in China.
At the same time, the US economy also drew strength from the burgeoning relationship. Chinese-made goods helped to keep prices low for American consumers, while US multinationals enjoyed an unprecedented spell of global growth, fueled in part by China’s labor supply and vast market. From 2007 to 2016, US goods exports to China grew 86 percent, compared to just 21 percent for exports to the rest of the world. US exports of services to China increased more than 300 percent in the same period, while services exports to the rest of the world increased by around 50 percent. In 2016, US services exports to China totaled more than $52 billion.
While global value chains bound China and the United States ever closer, citizens of both countries had increasing opportunities to travel and learn more about each other, forging lasting friendships and cultural links. Today, more than 10,000 people travel between China and the United States each day, double the number of a decade ago. Chinese tourists have become a boon for local businesses and communities in the United States, spending more than $33 billion in America in 2016, significantly higher than any other country. Chinese students make a similarly substantial contribution to US education institutions, with more than 350,000 enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year – accounting for over a third of all international students.
Whether seen in terms of economics or people-to-people exchange, China and the United States have both benefited enormously from closer ties and are more deeply entwined than ever. However, bilateral relations have now reached a crossroads.
In many ways, the current US-China trade dispute stems from the failure of policymakers in industrialized countries to manage the dislocations of rapid globalization over the past few decades. The pains and gains of this process were distributed in a grossly unfair fashion. Attempts to mitigate the worst effects were usually an afterthought and largely ineffectual.
A hollowing out of manufacturing, driven by technology and globalization, contributed to a massive US trade deficit and triggered waves of discontent among blue-collar workers in many OECD nations. Rather than compensating the losers of globalization, cynical politicians pointed the finger at free trade in general and China in particular.
In 2015, President Barack Obama’s National Security Strategy welcomed the rise of a “stable, peaceful and prosperous China”. This language is now long gone in Washington. The 2018 iteration labeled China a “strategic competitor”, laying the ground for a wide-ranging offensive against the world’s second-largest economy.
Sadly, the cognitive shift in Washington has become a leap from one fixation to another. China has gone from being a repository of unrealistic dreams to an anxiety trigger amid the “rise of the rest” and relative decline of US power.
Arguably, some adjustment of previous misguided beliefs was overdue. Unfortunately, the pendulum has swung to a dangerous extreme.
As China-US relations evolved over the last four decades, many in Washington believed – or at least hoped – that China’s long-term trajectory would converge with the US model. Images of China as a promised “land of a billion customers” that would become increasingly American filled the pages of best-sellers and multinationals’ business strategies.
It was not the first time in history that American projections of hope and fear have been cast onto China, or vice versa. In the early 20th century, US missionaries imagined China’s future as the world’s largest Christian nation. Meanwhile, hopeful Chinese saw the United States as a benevolent arbiter of justice that would protect them from imperialist forces. Both visions failed to materialize. As journalist John Pomfret has written, trans-Pacific relations have long gone through cycles of “rapturous enchantment begetting hope, followed by disappointment and repulsion”.
Coming out of the 1970s, modernization theory supplied an intellectual framework for these projections. It posited that irresistible forces would shape China into a Western-style free-market democracy. US advocates of engagement premised their position on this belief. As President George.W. Bush said in 2000, “trade freely with China, and time is on our side.”
As the illusion lifted and Western observers came to understand that China is destined to forge its own developmental path, hawkish voices and opportunistic politicians in the United States pounced on the chance to recast Beijing as the new enemy. This is the moment we find ourselves in, what Professor Zhao Suisheng at the University of Denver calls “the end of the mismatched grand bargain.” With the enchantment broken, engagement is also falling out of favor in Washington.
It is time to take a sober look at the China-US relationship and accept that the coming years and decades will see both cooperation and rivalry.
“De-coupling” has become a buzzword in some circles. In reality, our two nations are deeply entwined and cannot afford to quit each other. The United States should not abandon engagement because some of the premises it rested on were misguided. To do so would be to throw the baby out with the bathwater; it remains the only way for China and the United States to co-exist peacefully and ensure continued global growth.
Acceptance of competition in certain fields should not mean an end to bilateral exchange. Indeed, it calls for more interaction, particularly at the people-to-people level, to improve mutual understanding and identify opportunities to maintain the balance in favor of cooperation rather than conflict. A chilling of people-people ties will widen the information deficit between China and the United States, raising the risks of strategic miscalculation and conflict.
Applying historical models to the China-US relationship has become a cottage industry. In fact, there is no precedent to guide us in managing relations between two great powers in our deeply interconnected 21st-century world. Constructive dialogue and action must form the basis of our relationship to ensure that competition remains benign. That means listening carefully as well as speaking in a calm, clear voice.
We should also ensure that young people in China and the United States have opportunities to learn more about each other. Having been lucky enough to gain cherished experiences and friends through my time in US scholarly institutions, I strongly hope that young people on both sides of the Pacific will continue to be inclined and welcomed to do the same.
Bilateral exchange through travel, study and working abroad is a valuable investment in individuals’ lives and the future of the world’s most important bilateral relationship. While policymakers figure out a way past the illusions that have colored the bilateral relationship in recent times, hopefully, the next generation of Chinese and Americans will grow to see each other for who they really are: fellow humans that may sometimes have different beliefs, values and dreams, but who nonetheless have a huge stake in each others’ future.
The author is president of Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based non-governmental think tank. The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
Sometimes, people tied together by circumstance imagine radically different futures. Over time, mismatched expectations can put strain on a relationship. This tension is captured in the Chinese aphorism, “to share the same bed with different dreams.”
Various observers have applied this metaphor to the China-US relationship since ties were normalized in 1979. Yet, what started as a marriage of convenience amid the China-US-USSR strategic triangle has since blossomed into a robust relationship that has weathered tough times and brought great prosperity to both countries.
By any measure, the last four decades have seen remarkable strides forward in China-US ties. When President Richard Nixon visited Beijing for the first time in 1972, China-US annual bilateral trade was less than $100 million and bilateral investment was close to zero. By 2017, bilateral trade in goods reached $710.4 billion, over 232 times larger than in 1979.
For China, deepening of ties with the United States took place alongside the Reform and Opening-up process. The evolving bilateral relationship had a significant influence on China’s development over this time, with trans-Pacific trade helping millions to climb out of poverty. By 2017, cumulative foreign direct investment from the United States had reached $82.5 billion, with 68,000 companies set up in China.
At the same time, the US economy also drew strength from the burgeoning relationship. Chinese-made goods helped to keep prices low for American consumers, while US multinationals enjoyed an unprecedented spell of global growth, fueled in part by China’s labor supply and vast market. From 2007 to 2016, US goods exports to China grew 86 percent, compared to just 21 percent for exports to the rest of the world. US exports of services to China increased more than 300 percent in the same period, while services exports to the rest of the world increased by around 50 percent. In 2016, US services exports to China totaled more than $52 billion.
While global value chains bound China and the United States ever closer, citizens of both countries had increasing opportunities to travel and learn more about each other, forging lasting friendships and cultural links. Today, more than 10,000 people travel between China and the United States each day, double the number of a decade ago. Chinese tourists have become a boon for local businesses and communities in the United States, spending more than $33 billion in America in 2016, significantly higher than any other country. Chinese students make a similarly substantial contribution to US education institutions, with more than 350,000 enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year – accounting for over a third of all international students.
Whether seen in terms of economics or people-to-people exchange, China and the United States have both benefited enormously from closer ties and are more deeply entwined than ever. However, bilateral relations have now reached a crossroads.
In many ways, the current US-China trade dispute stems from the failure of policymakers in industrialized countries to manage the dislocations of rapid globalization over the past few decades. The pains and gains of this process were distributed in a grossly unfair fashion. Attempts to mitigate the worst effects were usually an afterthought and largely ineffectual.
A hollowing out of manufacturing, driven by technology and globalization, contributed to a massive US trade deficit and triggered waves of discontent among blue-collar workers in many OECD nations. Rather than compensating the losers of globalization, cynical politicians pointed the finger at free trade in general and China in particular.
In 2015, President Barack Obama’s National Security Strategy welcomed the rise of a “stable, peaceful and prosperous China”. This language is now long gone in Washington. The 2018 iteration labeled China a “strategic competitor”, laying the ground for a wide-ranging offensive against the world’s second-largest economy.
Sadly, the cognitive shift in Washington has become a leap from one fixation to another. China has gone from being a repository of unrealistic dreams to an anxiety trigger amid the “rise of the rest” and relative decline of US power.
Arguably, some adjustment of previous misguided beliefs was overdue. Unfortunately, the pendulum has swung to a dangerous extreme.
As China-US relations evolved over the last four decades, many in Washington believed – or at least hoped – that China’s long-term trajectory would converge with the US model. Images of China as a promised “land of a billion customers” that would become increasingly American filled the pages of best-sellers and multinationals’ business strategies.
It was not the first time in history that American projections of hope and fear have been cast onto China, or vice versa. In the early 20th century, US missionaries imagined China’s future as the world’s largest Christian nation. Meanwhile, hopeful Chinese saw the United States as a benevolent arbiter of justice that would protect them from imperialist forces. Both visions failed to materialize. As journalist John Pomfret has written, trans-Pacific relations have long gone through cycles of “rapturous enchantment begetting hope, followed by disappointment and repulsion”.
Coming out of the 1970s, modernization theory supplied an intellectual framework for these projections. It posited that irresistible forces would shape China into a Western-style free-market democracy. US advocates of engagement premised their position on this belief. As President George.W. Bush said in 2000, “trade freely with China, and time is on our side.”
As the illusion lifted and Western observers came to understand that China is destined to forge its own developmental path, hawkish voices and opportunistic politicians in the United States pounced on the chance to recast Beijing as the new enemy. This is the moment we find ourselves in, what Professor Zhao Suisheng at the University of Denver calls “the end of the mismatched grand bargain.” With the enchantment broken, engagement is also falling out of favor in Washington.
It is time to take a sober look at the China-US relationship and accept that the coming years and decades will see both cooperation and rivalry.
“De-coupling” has become a buzzword in some circles. In reality, our two nations are deeply entwined and cannot afford to quit each other. The United States should not abandon engagement because some of the premises it rested on were misguided. To do so would be to throw the baby out with the bathwater; it remains the only way for China and the United States to co-exist peacefully and ensure continued global growth.
Acceptance of competition in certain fields should not mean an end to bilateral exchange. Indeed, it calls for more interaction, particularly at the people-to-people level, to improve mutual understanding and identify opportunities to maintain the balance in favor of cooperation rather than conflict. A chilling of people-people ties will widen the information deficit between China and the United States, raising the risks of strategic miscalculation and conflict.
Applying historical models to the China-US relationship has become a cottage industry. In fact, there is no precedent to guide us in managing relations between two great powers in our deeply interconnected 21st-century world. Constructive dialogue and action must form the basis of our relationship to ensure that competition remains benign. That means listening carefully as well as speaking in a calm, clear voice.
We should also ensure that young people in China and the United States have opportunities to learn more about each other. Having been lucky enough to gain cherished experiences and friends through my time in US scholarly institutions, I strongly hope that young people on both sides of the Pacific will continue to be inclined and welcomed to do the same.
Bilateral exchange through travel, study and working abroad is a valuable investment in individuals’ lives and the future of the world’s most important bilateral relationship. While policymakers figure out a way past the illusions that have colored the bilateral relationship in recent times, hopefully, the next generation of Chinese and Americans will grow to see each other for who they really are: fellow humans that may sometimes have different beliefs, values and dreams, but who nonetheless have a huge stake in each others’ future.
The author is president of Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based non-governmental think tank. The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
