In recent years, with the rapid development of unmanned technology, the public is paying more and more attention to unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) that have been commonly referred to drones. The public's impression of drone is no longer limited to lethal weapons used by military but has shifted to drones used for entertainment and commerce produced by high-tech companies like DJI.

Goldman Sachs estimated that the global drone market will reach $100bn by the year 2020, and the Chinese market is estimated to account for 4.5 percentage of the global share. Therefore, the market boasts unprecedented potential for creating social employment opportunities and promoting the development of peripheral industries. In the meantime, overall investment in research and development activities and a focus on technological advancement are healthy signs in emerging economics and enable them to enhance their growth. The global commercial drone market will grow at a CAGR of between 16% and 17% from 2017 to 2023 according to PwC global report on the commercial applications of drone technology.

The rapid development of the drone industry in recent years is undoubtedly a strong testament to the fourth industrial revolution. This digital revolution will integrate various technologies and eventually eliminate the boundaries between the physical, digital and biological worlds, thus completely changing the way we live, work, travel and socialize.

With highly automated, AI-powered system control and management, it is an indisputable fact that drones will gradually integrate into the existing air traffic system. Boeing tested remote control technology in 2018. In the future, pilots will remotely control flights through the data control link at ground control stations, which will greatly reduce airlines’ labor cost and help airlines to make higher profits while solving the problem of pilot shortage. At the same time, the UAE government is ambitiously promoting electronic vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVOTLs) service program, aiming to make Dubai the first city in the world to provide eVTOLs services which ensures that UAE continues to boldly lead global innovation. Although defeated by a German drone company for the Dubai Air Taxi project, the EHANG 184/216 drone has been attracting attention from media all over the world, and recently it has made a successful trial flight in Netherlands, which shows that Chinese enterprises take a lead in the field of drone R&D and manufacturing.

At the same time, thanks to the large-scale industrial standardization, design and production based on module, the manufacturing and use cost of drone will be further reduced and drones can be customized and modified according to specific application scenarios based on various needs. Like the media through which information is carried and delivered, it connects various technologies quickly and efficiently, which ultimately helps to break down the boundaries of the physical, digital, and biological worlds.

As we all know, the United States, France, Germany, U.K and other traditional aviation powers have been long leading the development of the international civil aviation industry and dominating the development and implementation of international standards. Due to the relatively late take-off of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry, China's influence is relatively limited in the field of traditional aircraft manufacturing, airworthiness standards, standards of communication surveillance and navigation, new navigation technology as well as aircraft operation standards.

Given current situation, drone projects can be considered as excellent projects for Chinese civil aviation industry to utilize and achieve the overtaking on the curve. The development of the global rules starts relatively late in most of countries, as a result, their impacts on standard setting and implementing are limited.

In 2018, through the nearly 10-year efforts of ICAO Expert Group and Secretariat, the international standards for remotely pilot was finally endorsed. Many proposals were subject to repeated adjustments and revisions due to controversy especially related to national interests. Chinese civil aviation industry needs to seize this opportunity and introduce relevant enterprises from China to the standard developing process. The influence of Chinese civil aviation industry, demonstrated through the presence of drone, will help Chinese companies to increase their global exposure.

Drone is one of the forces that revitalize the market economy.

In recent years, the Chinese drone market has seen a compound annual growth rate of more than 100 percent. The market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) says more than half of commercial drones in the United States come from China. Meanwhile, the industry ministry of China estimates that China’s drone market is likely to grow annually by 40 percent to have an output value of 60 billion yuan ($9.13 billion) by 2020. The further expansion of commercial drone applications will inevitably play an important role in boosting the economy.

In 2016, the State Council of China issued the 13th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industry Development Plan, which elevated the drone industry into a national strategy for the first time.

With benefits like lower cost due to easy mass production, lower risk of casualties in operations than general aviation, high flexibility and mobility in air, diversified volumes and ease to transport and carry goods, drones have unique advantages that are difficult to replace in many complex and dangerous operation areas. With the fixed installation and modification by various industries, companies have greatly reduced the operating costs of manpower and the material resources, increased the productivity, reduced the risk of operations while reducing the environmental pollution. This process of replacing traditional workers with automation and intelligence is sweeping many industries in China, bringing new vitality to traditional industries and activating new industry chains and regional economic development.

The industry chain consisting of special materials, lithium batteries, special plastics, carbon fiber, electronic components and other related products required by the drone industry has been brought to life. These products can not only help and guarantee the domestic supply chain, but also take the international market through export. Meanwhile, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu are full of vitality due to the rise and development of drone industry.

With the integration of information technologies such as big data, cloud computing, mobile Internet and AI with drone technology, drone industry has stepped into the horizontal development model from the vertical development. The future of drone is just around the corner. Is China ready to embrace it?

Yang Junwei is project lead of drones and tomorrow’s airspace, World Economic Forum.

The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.

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