The trade and technology confrontation between China and the United States, which has been initiated by Washington, has raised concerns not only about China-US relations, but also about the prospects of economic globalization.

The US, which used to be a major architect and a staunch champion of economic globalization, is now seen as trying to reverse the trend of economic globalization and trade liberalization.

But the trade frictions it has sparked will not stop economic globalization, never mind reverse it. Although the US is aggrieved, believing that globalization has enabled the rise of China at the expense of the US. At the end of the day, the world's two largest economies will have to agree on some mutually acceptable solutions, as that is in both their interests.

And while the old driving forces for globalization might be exhausted, the new tech revolution and new growth points are reinvigorating it.

Meanwhile, despite the protectionism of the US, international trade liberalization remains the mainstream. Pursuing profit maximization remains the chief motive for multinational corporations and market players. And as China is further integrated into the world economy, it will engage more emerging economies in globalization. Although the multilateral trade and investment liberalization negotiations under the World Trade Organization framework have suffered setbacks, the number of regional trade agreements has continued to increase.

The number of free trade pilot zones established by individual countries is also on the rise, which reflects the growing economic openness. For example, China has established 12 free trade pilot zones, and regional trade agreements, free trade zones and free trade ports will become new initiatives to promote economic globalization, and tighten the economic ties among countries and regions.

However, while economic globalization will continue, it is unlikely to maintain the momentum it used to since global manufacturing has become mature and it is highly unlikely to have more within-industry or within-product division of labor, and the Chinese economy shifting gears. China with a slower growth and a greater focus on the service sector will inevitably have a reduced demand for consumer goods and investment from the rest of the world.

But the trend of economic globalization will continue to prevail. The rise of China and its steady and sustainable development, will become a new driving force for economic globalization, while its Belt and Road Initiative will pull more nations into globalization.

The fruits of globalization, if shared more fairly, will bring more benefits to nations at varied stages of development. With the existing mechanisms, the Global South can hardly enjoy a fair slice of the cake, while the foreign aid they get from the developed countries usually comes with strings attached. Innovating the institutional arrangements and business models, and the adjustments to the current international economic order are now tipping the scale and providing more benefits to the poorer nations. A more open, inclusive, balanced and win-win globalization, if accepted universally, will enhance the rule-setting in international trade. Since China is reaping fruits from the global market, it should take the initiative to shore up globalization and contribute to the establishment of new fairer rules.

It also needs to prioritize the absorption of new economic factors, not just the sheer size of foreign investment. With the volumes of foreign investment in China and the scale of its foreign trade having little room for future growth, the quality of foreign investment should merit more attention. Artificial intelligence, the internet of things, big data, cloud computing, industrial robotics and smart manufacturing, it is areas such as these that will lead the new economy, drive globalization and create the new division of labor. As a result, in the next round of opening-up, China needs to attract the cutting-edge technologies and up-and-coming industries of developed countries.

It also needs to establish higher standards for trade and investment liberalization and develop the capacity to chart the course of international trade. The free-trade zones at the forefront of China's opening-up should set their bars higher. Moreover, the free-trade ports should model themselves on the most advanced ones of other countries. Better capacity to formulate international treaties of free trade and investment will improve the liberalization of China and attract more global economic factors.

China should also press ahead with the Belt and Road Initiative and draw more countries and organizations to it. The Belt and Road Initiative goes beyond specific projects of international trade and investment, it is about a new wave of globalization, creating new networks and divisions of labor in some landlocked regions. It is tasked with the missions of elevating China's international image and nurture the talents with global vision and capacity.

Steady headway also needs to be made in the internationalization of renminbi. The Chinese currency is embracing a golden opportunity for its internationalization. The Belt and Road Initiative is increasing the use of the renminbi as an international currency, since more countries along the Belt and Road routes are being encouraged to use it for payments, deposits and in their financial portfolios. A more internationalized currency can give China an edge in the global competition.

Thus both history and the current situation indicate globalization will continue.

The author is an associate research fellow of Institute of Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

This article was translated by Hou Sheng.

The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.

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