Game-changing view of Korean Peninsula
By Harvey Dzodin |
chinawatch.cn |
Updated: 2019-07-26 14:13
One of my favorite quotations is from the Irishman George Bernard Shaw who said that "Some people see things as they are and ask why. I dream dreams that never were and ask 'why not?'". My dream that Northeast Asia can become an engine of economic growth instead of a region of constant conflict has moved closer to possible these last few weeks.
On June 30, US President Donald Trump took a few historic steps into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and agreed to resume stalled negotiations over normalizing relations and news reports now suggest that the United States may be willing to drop its demand for "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula". On June 20, President Xi Jinping met with top DPRK leader Kim Jong-un to discuss bilateral cooperation, regional relations and world issues. On June 29, President Xi met with President Trump and agreed to resume negotiations over trade issues. Dreams can come true.
Remember the night of June 11 in Singapore when Kim took a presummit stroll in that vibrant ultrahigh standard-of-living city-state that was reported on in the DPRK on TV. The only logical conclusion was that the stroll was deliberate and that Kim wanted to send a message to his people that a successful negotiation with President Trump could eventually make their country into the Singapore of Northeast Asia.
So let's dream that the DPRK, the Republic of Korea, the United States and other stakeholders reach some consensus to lift the onerous sanctions imposed on the DPRK. What then?
The DPRK leader Kim surprised the world at the beginning of 2018 with his audacious call for renewed negotiations. The ROK President Moon Jae-in, continuing the Sunshine policy of his mentor and Nobel Prize winner Kim Dae-jung, agreed to do so and has presented intriguing and thoughtful proposals for what Northeast Asia could become in a new world of normalized relations.
Of course, each party is motivated by its own self-interest. The DPRK wants a formal end to the Korean conflict, and to be free of sanctions in order to reach a higher level of economic development. The ROK wants to continue its economic growth in a normalized political environment. China wants a stable neighbor who will be part of the Belt and Road Initiative, together with the reduction or removal of foreign troops so close to its border, while at the same time giving a boost to the seriously lagging economy of its Northeastern rust belt. Russia wants respect and to bolster its economy, especially in supplying energy and agricultural goods to the DPRK. Japan wants security from attacks by the DPRK. The US wants to reduce military expenditures. All would like to sell equipment and know-how to the DPRK.
The DPRK has between $6 trillion and $10 trillion of 200 types of minerals distributed over 80 percent of the country. This includes not only gold and rare earths but coal, copper, graphite, iron ore, magnesite, molybdenum and zinc to name a few.
President Moon has proposed a "new economic map of the Korean Peninsula" with two main elements. The first is about energy from gas transported from Russia through the DPRK and onto the ROK's main industrial clusters. The second fits into the ROK's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. Moon's visionary plan proposes rail connectivity linking the ROK from Busan to Seoul and then on to the DPRK's Kaesong, Pyongyang, Nampo and Sinuiju, and then on to China's Dandong and Beijing. From there the trans-Siberian and trans-Mongolian railways would connect the Koreas to Europe.
Such a grand vision would be a big win-win to all stakeholders. Recalibrating the regional economic map to position the DPRK as a critical element turns the Korean Peninsula into a regional growth engine connecting Northeast Asia to Eastern and Central Europe.
Northeast Asia can indeed transform itself into a win-win for all stakeholders turning it from a conflict creator to a stable regional economic powerhouse. It will just take more hard work at this critical juncture. As an old Chinese saying teaches us: "Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress, working together is success."
The author is senior fellow of the think tank Center for China and Globalization.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
One of my favorite quotations is from the Irishman George Bernard Shaw who said that "Some people see things as they are and ask why. I dream dreams that never were and ask 'why not?'". My dream that Northeast Asia can become an engine of economic growth instead of a region of constant conflict has moved closer to possible these last few weeks.
On June 30, US President Donald Trump took a few historic steps into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and agreed to resume stalled negotiations over normalizing relations and news reports now suggest that the United States may be willing to drop its demand for "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula". On June 20, President Xi Jinping met with top DPRK leader Kim Jong-un to discuss bilateral cooperation, regional relations and world issues. On June 29, President Xi met with President Trump and agreed to resume negotiations over trade issues. Dreams can come true.
Remember the night of June 11 in Singapore when Kim took a presummit stroll in that vibrant ultrahigh standard-of-living city-state that was reported on in the DPRK on TV. The only logical conclusion was that the stroll was deliberate and that Kim wanted to send a message to his people that a successful negotiation with President Trump could eventually make their country into the Singapore of Northeast Asia.
So let's dream that the DPRK, the Republic of Korea, the United States and other stakeholders reach some consensus to lift the onerous sanctions imposed on the DPRK. What then?
The DPRK leader Kim surprised the world at the beginning of 2018 with his audacious call for renewed negotiations. The ROK President Moon Jae-in, continuing the Sunshine policy of his mentor and Nobel Prize winner Kim Dae-jung, agreed to do so and has presented intriguing and thoughtful proposals for what Northeast Asia could become in a new world of normalized relations.
Of course, each party is motivated by its own self-interest. The DPRK wants a formal end to the Korean conflict, and to be free of sanctions in order to reach a higher level of economic development. The ROK wants to continue its economic growth in a normalized political environment. China wants a stable neighbor who will be part of the Belt and Road Initiative, together with the reduction or removal of foreign troops so close to its border, while at the same time giving a boost to the seriously lagging economy of its Northeastern rust belt. Russia wants respect and to bolster its economy, especially in supplying energy and agricultural goods to the DPRK. Japan wants security from attacks by the DPRK. The US wants to reduce military expenditures. All would like to sell equipment and know-how to the DPRK.
The DPRK has between $6 trillion and $10 trillion of 200 types of minerals distributed over 80 percent of the country. This includes not only gold and rare earths but coal, copper, graphite, iron ore, magnesite, molybdenum and zinc to name a few.
President Moon has proposed a "new economic map of the Korean Peninsula" with two main elements. The first is about energy from gas transported from Russia through the DPRK and onto the ROK's main industrial clusters. The second fits into the ROK's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. Moon's visionary plan proposes rail connectivity linking the ROK from Busan to Seoul and then on to the DPRK's Kaesong, Pyongyang, Nampo and Sinuiju, and then on to China's Dandong and Beijing. From there the trans-Siberian and trans-Mongolian railways would connect the Koreas to Europe.
Such a grand vision would be a big win-win to all stakeholders. Recalibrating the regional economic map to position the DPRK as a critical element turns the Korean Peninsula into a regional growth engine connecting Northeast Asia to Eastern and Central Europe.
Northeast Asia can indeed transform itself into a win-win for all stakeholders turning it from a conflict creator to a stable regional economic powerhouse. It will just take more hard work at this critical juncture. As an old Chinese saying teaches us: "Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress, working together is success."
The author is senior fellow of the think tank Center for China and Globalization.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.