Mobility transitions with sustainability
By Maya Ben Dror |
chinawatch.cn |
Updated: 2019-11-28 13:20
The effects of our current transportation modes on the climate and our health cannot be understated. On-road vehicles cause one-third of the air pollution that produces smog in cities, and over two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions are produced by mobility, making transportation the second-largest sector driving dangerous climate change.
Emissions from urban passenger vehicles will have to be reduced to prevent 1.5 C increase in global temperature as well as air quality deterioration, but the challenge is not being tackled holistically enough to address its risks to the climate, our health and our quality of life.
Fossil fuel cars consume more than 60 percent of the total transport related energy and are the greatest climate burden, with the emissions from personal vehicles the main culprit. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, emissions from personal vehicles can account for between 50 and 90 percent of urban air pollution.
An estimated 84 percent of global transportation-attributable premature deaths from vehicle tailpipe emissions occur in G20 countries, 70 percent of them in the four largest vehicle markets: China, India, the European Union, and the United States.
More recently, we have become aware of the impacts of air pollution on the development of the brain.
In response to these issues, resources have been devoted to replacing internal combustion engines with zero emissions powered electric vehicles and more recently, fuel-cell vehicles. China has played a key role in vehicle electrification and leads the world in both production and sales.
Yet the bulk of emissions from passenger vehicles are unlikely to be reduced over the coming 10 years. It is expected that electric vehicles will reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in 2022 and that they will start dominating car sales only around 2030. Vehicle electrification, although a key approach, will not put us on track to prevent irreversible global warming and air quality deterioration if pursued alone simply because a transition that relies on new car sales is not quick enough.
A more holistic approach is urgently needed. Flagged by an increasing number of researchers, an adequate solution to passenger vehicle emissions reduction combines electrification with a sharp shift to shared rides and also autonomous mobility ecosystems. Shared, electric and automated mobility (SEAM) could reduce the number of vehicles from the projected 2.1 billion to 0.5 billion and carbon emissions from 4,600 megatons to less than 700 megatons by 2050 while also accounting for increased mobility demand. It could deliver an efficiency increase of 70 percent, a 95-percent decrease in emissions, and 40 percent cost savings by 2050.
In the information era, mobility ranges from app-based ride requests to dockless bikes to connected and autonomous vehicle technology. These new modes challenge the car-centric and car-ownership norm.
They have spurred much debate, particularly as congestion increases and multi-modality lanes and sidewalks become difficult to manage. Instead of letting this unique mobility crisis "go to waste", we should jointly rethink how our cities and mobility can be redesigned to create sustainable mobility.
A deliberate shift to shared, electric and automated mobility is preferred over allowing these three technologies to continue to develop in isolation from one another. The SEAM vision is anchored on the notion of mobility as a service and is complementary to active and mass mobility modes.
A rapidly urbanizing China will continue to play a leading role in mobility transitions. It has not only driven the electrification of vehicles but is also home to the dockless mobility phenomenon and the largest shared ride company in the world.
Furthermore, China has already demonstrated how it plans to drive the integration of shared mobility with electrification through regulation. It has the opportunity not only to leapfrog technologically but also introduce urban SEAM mobility governance blueprints.
It is considering policies that cater to the long-term vision of sustainable mobility. These include charging for infrastructure and dedicated curb-space. By investing in faster charging vehicles for high-occupancy shared rides, as opposed to single occupancy ones, not only will the electrification of fleets be encouraged, but there will also be higher utilization of every vehicle on the road. This will lead to less street space needed to move the same number of people at equal or higher speeds. Similarly, dedicated passenger loading zones can smoothen traffic and enhance shared rides.
At the same time, road-pricing and parking fees could serve as cost levers for internalizing true mobility costs. Through lower road, toll and zone pricing for shared-rides, electric and where possible automated, commute behavior can be impacted very effectively while meeting increased travel demand.
This mission is possible. However, it requires a collaborative effort: businesses and cities need to create commute options in ways that enable people to go about their important commute needs conveniently, affordably, and efficiently.
The author is lead of Automotive and Autonomous Mobility, Shaping the Future of Mobility Platform and Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution at the World Economic Forum.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
The effects of our current transportation modes on the climate and our health cannot be understated. On-road vehicles cause one-third of the air pollution that produces smog in cities, and over two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions are produced by mobility, making transportation the second-largest sector driving dangerous climate change.
Emissions from urban passenger vehicles will have to be reduced to prevent 1.5 C increase in global temperature as well as air quality deterioration, but the challenge is not being tackled holistically enough to address its risks to the climate, our health and our quality of life.
Fossil fuel cars consume more than 60 percent of the total transport related energy and are the greatest climate burden, with the emissions from personal vehicles the main culprit. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, emissions from personal vehicles can account for between 50 and 90 percent of urban air pollution.
An estimated 84 percent of global transportation-attributable premature deaths from vehicle tailpipe emissions occur in G20 countries, 70 percent of them in the four largest vehicle markets: China, India, the European Union, and the United States.
More recently, we have become aware of the impacts of air pollution on the development of the brain.
In response to these issues, resources have been devoted to replacing internal combustion engines with zero emissions powered electric vehicles and more recently, fuel-cell vehicles. China has played a key role in vehicle electrification and leads the world in both production and sales.
Yet the bulk of emissions from passenger vehicles are unlikely to be reduced over the coming 10 years. It is expected that electric vehicles will reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in 2022 and that they will start dominating car sales only around 2030. Vehicle electrification, although a key approach, will not put us on track to prevent irreversible global warming and air quality deterioration if pursued alone simply because a transition that relies on new car sales is not quick enough.
A more holistic approach is urgently needed. Flagged by an increasing number of researchers, an adequate solution to passenger vehicle emissions reduction combines electrification with a sharp shift to shared rides and also autonomous mobility ecosystems. Shared, electric and automated mobility (SEAM) could reduce the number of vehicles from the projected 2.1 billion to 0.5 billion and carbon emissions from 4,600 megatons to less than 700 megatons by 2050 while also accounting for increased mobility demand. It could deliver an efficiency increase of 70 percent, a 95-percent decrease in emissions, and 40 percent cost savings by 2050.
In the information era, mobility ranges from app-based ride requests to dockless bikes to connected and autonomous vehicle technology. These new modes challenge the car-centric and car-ownership norm.
They have spurred much debate, particularly as congestion increases and multi-modality lanes and sidewalks become difficult to manage. Instead of letting this unique mobility crisis "go to waste", we should jointly rethink how our cities and mobility can be redesigned to create sustainable mobility.
A deliberate shift to shared, electric and automated mobility is preferred over allowing these three technologies to continue to develop in isolation from one another. The SEAM vision is anchored on the notion of mobility as a service and is complementary to active and mass mobility modes.
A rapidly urbanizing China will continue to play a leading role in mobility transitions. It has not only driven the electrification of vehicles but is also home to the dockless mobility phenomenon and the largest shared ride company in the world.
Furthermore, China has already demonstrated how it plans to drive the integration of shared mobility with electrification through regulation. It has the opportunity not only to leapfrog technologically but also introduce urban SEAM mobility governance blueprints.
It is considering policies that cater to the long-term vision of sustainable mobility. These include charging for infrastructure and dedicated curb-space. By investing in faster charging vehicles for high-occupancy shared rides, as opposed to single occupancy ones, not only will the electrification of fleets be encouraged, but there will also be higher utilization of every vehicle on the road. This will lead to less street space needed to move the same number of people at equal or higher speeds. Similarly, dedicated passenger loading zones can smoothen traffic and enhance shared rides.
At the same time, road-pricing and parking fees could serve as cost levers for internalizing true mobility costs. Through lower road, toll and zone pricing for shared-rides, electric and where possible automated, commute behavior can be impacted very effectively while meeting increased travel demand.
This mission is possible. However, it requires a collaborative effort: businesses and cities need to create commute options in ways that enable people to go about their important commute needs conveniently, affordably, and efficiently.
The author is lead of Automotive and Autonomous Mobility, Shaping the Future of Mobility Platform and Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution at the World Economic Forum.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.