Global security outlook in 2020
By Zou Zhibo |
chinawatch.cn |
Updated: 2020-01-22 13:18
Predictions about the global security outlook are determined by the existing global security landscape and the implications of emergent events that could easily change the course of global security. Therefore, if we are to make any forecasts about the global security situation in 2020, we need to look at both the relations among major powers that shape the global security landscape and hot spot issues, that have significant implications, and which in most cases are the fallout of decisions made by major powers.
Looking first at the relations among the United States, Russia and China, it can be predicted that the US' strategic confrontation with China and Russia will ratchet up in 2020. The US will continue to pressure China with containment of its economy and technology, and seek to undermine China's political and financial security. Once the US feels the outcomes from the dramas it has incited in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region are not to its satisfaction, it will likely shift its attention to elevating its relationship with Taiwan by porting its aircraft carriers, dramatically increasing its arms sales to the island and hosting high-level visits. Its hidden agenda will be to undermine the progress of peaceful reunification while raising the stakes and forcing China to make concessions on issues related to trade and technology. By backing the separatists, the US will continue to leverage the issue of Taiwan to serve its agenda of containing a rising China. In the year of a presidential election, the prospects for the US to pursue conciliatory relations with China and Russia look slim. As a result, China and Russia will be pushed closer together and they will step up their cooperation in areas of politics, diplomacy, military technology, energy and trade, with breakthroughs foreseeable in certain areas.
The once unshakable US-led alliance system will continue to show signs of cracking in 2020.Under the unilateral approach of the current administration, the US has not only walked away from its international obligations and responsibilities, but also ignored the interests of its allies and the responsibilities that it should shoulder. This has not only harmed the US' reputation as a global leader, but also led to louder cries from its allies for less reliance on the US and more independence in terms of diplomacy and defense. Such a trend reveals a weakening US which is less able and interested in international obligations and responsibilities. With the US government continuing in that direction, 2020 will see increasing mistrust and conflicts between the US and its allies when it comes to its international obligations, its responsibilities for the allies and its relationship with China and Russia, as well as regional issues and bilateral trade. It is too early to tell if the US-led alliance is moving toward disintegration in the near future. In the long run, however, such a military alliance that is against the overarching goal of the development of humanity is destined to collapse and disintegrate. With the West no longer as cohesive as it used to be, amid the prolonged strategic game between China and the US, powers in the Western camp, struggling with their own concerns and entangled interests, will be reluctant to lurch to or take the side of the US.
Besides what is going on for the time being, major hotspot issues in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Middle East will shape the global security status as well. The killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, the highest commander of the Quad Force, has pushed the US and Iran to the brink of war. Looked at from the perspective of Iran's national interests, political strategies, the sentiment of the public and its history, the Iranian reprisals will continue to unfold, albeit the Iranians do not want a war with the US.In Syria, the government of Bashar Assad has successfully regained control over the country's domestic affairs. With Russian military backing, the government has recovered most of the territory it lost, shrinking the areas held by the opposition forces backed by the US. The US has since toned down its assertive Syrian policy and is no longer demanding Assad step down. With the US pulling its troops out of the region, the opposition in Syria will soon run out of steam. Russia will thus become the biggest external influence in Syria. It will take an accommodating approach to addressing Turkey's concerns as a way to build closer ties with Turkey.
In 2020, conflicts will continue to escalate between Israel and Palestine. The US has made dramatic changes in its policy toward the Israel-Palestine conflict, some reversing US policy for decades. The US has moved its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, recognizing the city as the country's capital. It has endorsed Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and considered Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be legal. All these moves, inciting fury in Palestine and opposition from the Arab states, have violated the consensus of the international community and the relevant UN resolutions. 2020 will witness repercussions for the current US administration's bigotry with frequent and escalated confrontations between Palestine and Israel.
Meanwhile on the Korean Peninsula, little substantive progress in denuclearization will be achieved this year. The current US administration will never stop pressing the DPRK to substantially roll back its nuclear programs in exchange for a US security commitment. The DPRK will never accept such a deal. The country has made significant shifts in its national strategy and taken major steps toward denuclearization. The prospect of a denuclearized peninsular will technically depend on the US government's DPRK policy, and more broadly on the strategic priorities of the US.
The author is deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
Predictions about the global security outlook are determined by the existing global security landscape and the implications of emergent events that could easily change the course of global security. Therefore, if we are to make any forecasts about the global security situation in 2020, we need to look at both the relations among major powers that shape the global security landscape and hot spot issues, that have significant implications, and which in most cases are the fallout of decisions made by major powers.
Looking first at the relations among the United States, Russia and China, it can be predicted that the US' strategic confrontation with China and Russia will ratchet up in 2020. The US will continue to pressure China with containment of its economy and technology, and seek to undermine China's political and financial security. Once the US feels the outcomes from the dramas it has incited in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region are not to its satisfaction, it will likely shift its attention to elevating its relationship with Taiwan by porting its aircraft carriers, dramatically increasing its arms sales to the island and hosting high-level visits. Its hidden agenda will be to undermine the progress of peaceful reunification while raising the stakes and forcing China to make concessions on issues related to trade and technology. By backing the separatists, the US will continue to leverage the issue of Taiwan to serve its agenda of containing a rising China. In the year of a presidential election, the prospects for the US to pursue conciliatory relations with China and Russia look slim. As a result, China and Russia will be pushed closer together and they will step up their cooperation in areas of politics, diplomacy, military technology, energy and trade, with breakthroughs foreseeable in certain areas.
The once unshakable US-led alliance system will continue to show signs of cracking in 2020.Under the unilateral approach of the current administration, the US has not only walked away from its international obligations and responsibilities, but also ignored the interests of its allies and the responsibilities that it should shoulder. This has not only harmed the US' reputation as a global leader, but also led to louder cries from its allies for less reliance on the US and more independence in terms of diplomacy and defense. Such a trend reveals a weakening US which is less able and interested in international obligations and responsibilities. With the US government continuing in that direction, 2020 will see increasing mistrust and conflicts between the US and its allies when it comes to its international obligations, its responsibilities for the allies and its relationship with China and Russia, as well as regional issues and bilateral trade. It is too early to tell if the US-led alliance is moving toward disintegration in the near future. In the long run, however, such a military alliance that is against the overarching goal of the development of humanity is destined to collapse and disintegrate. With the West no longer as cohesive as it used to be, amid the prolonged strategic game between China and the US, powers in the Western camp, struggling with their own concerns and entangled interests, will be reluctant to lurch to or take the side of the US.
Besides what is going on for the time being, major hotspot issues in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Middle East will shape the global security status as well. The killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, the highest commander of the Quad Force, has pushed the US and Iran to the brink of war. Looked at from the perspective of Iran's national interests, political strategies, the sentiment of the public and its history, the Iranian reprisals will continue to unfold, albeit the Iranians do not want a war with the US.In Syria, the government of Bashar Assad has successfully regained control over the country's domestic affairs. With Russian military backing, the government has recovered most of the territory it lost, shrinking the areas held by the opposition forces backed by the US. The US has since toned down its assertive Syrian policy and is no longer demanding Assad step down. With the US pulling its troops out of the region, the opposition in Syria will soon run out of steam. Russia will thus become the biggest external influence in Syria. It will take an accommodating approach to addressing Turkey's concerns as a way to build closer ties with Turkey.
In 2020, conflicts will continue to escalate between Israel and Palestine. The US has made dramatic changes in its policy toward the Israel-Palestine conflict, some reversing US policy for decades. The US has moved its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, recognizing the city as the country's capital. It has endorsed Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and considered Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be legal. All these moves, inciting fury in Palestine and opposition from the Arab states, have violated the consensus of the international community and the relevant UN resolutions. 2020 will witness repercussions for the current US administration's bigotry with frequent and escalated confrontations between Palestine and Israel.
Meanwhile on the Korean Peninsula, little substantive progress in denuclearization will be achieved this year. The current US administration will never stop pressing the DPRK to substantially roll back its nuclear programs in exchange for a US security commitment. The DPRK will never accept such a deal. The country has made significant shifts in its national strategy and taken major steps toward denuclearization. The prospect of a denuclearized peninsular will technically depend on the US government's DPRK policy, and more broadly on the strategic priorities of the US.
The author is deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The author contributed this article to China Watch exclusively. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of China Watch.
All rights reserved. Copying or sharing of any content for other than personal use is prohibited without prior written permission.
